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The stock market has not seen a single green day in September yet. Including today's drop, the S&P 500 is now down 3.4% this month and it's only the first week. That's $1.7 trillion of S&P 500 market cap erased so far. Maybe rate cuts aren't what the market wants after all.
Downward jobs revisions have become the new normal this year. 11 out of the last 15 jobs reports have now been revised lower. The June jobs report has now been revised lower TWO TIMES, a major red flag. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
BREAKING: The June and July jobs reports have been revised LOWER by a combined 86,000 jobs. The June jobs report was revised lower by 61,000 jobs, from 179,000 to 118,000. The July jobs report was revised lower by 25,000 jobs, from 114,000 to 89,000. This means that the July…
The unemployment rate falling to 4.2% was some decent news here. It's unlikely that this particular jobs report will sway the Fed's decision strongly. The countdown to the Fed meeting begins now. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
BREAKING: The US economy adds 142,000 jobs in August, BELOW expectations of 164,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in-line with expectations of 4.2%. While unemployment is back on the decline, the labor market is cracking. What does the Fed do at this month's meeting?
We’ve said it before and we will say it again. The US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone. Interest has literally become one of the largest annual expenses for the US in a matter of years. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
This is insane: Interest expense on US Federal debt is now at a record $3 billion PER DAY. This is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years. Total annual interest costs on Federal debt reached a whopping $1.1 trillion in Q2 2024. Even if the Fed…
Tomorrow's jobs report will be the key factor in determining if a 50 bps rate cut is coming this month. If the jobs report is in-line with expectations, or better, we believe a 25 bps rate cut is coming. Interest rate expectations appear to be shifting too dovish again.
BREAKING: Prediction markets are now pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2024, or 100 bps of cuts, for the first time since the August 5th crash, according to @Kalshi. Over the last 2 days, prediction markets have priced-in an additional rate cut in 2024. This comes as labor market data…
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This is remarkable: Aerospace & defense stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 index by ~20% per year on average over the last 35 years. Defense stocks have returned 12% per annum beating the S&P 500's average annual gain of 10%. Aerospace & defense companies are benefiting from…
We have seen countless indicators now that the labor market is weakening. Even more concerning is that previously reported weak data is now being revised even lower. Tomorrow's jobs report is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
BREAKING: Prediction market expectations for tomorrow's August jobs report just tanked by 26,000 jobs in 24 hours. Exactly 24 hours ago, prediction markets expected 174,000 jobs added in August. Now expectations are down to 159,000 jobd, according to @Kalshi. This comes after…
BREAKING: The US labor force participation rate is set to decline to 61.2% over the next decade, according to the BLS. This would mark the lowest percentage since the 2020 pandemic and the second lowest in ~50 years. These expectations are driven by the aging population and…
BREAKING: August private payrolls in the US rose by 99,000, well below expectations of 144,000. This marks the smallest gain since 2021. What is happening to the labor market?
A large downward revision may be coming in US GDP data: The difference between Real GDP and real Gross Domestic Income reached a record $616 billion. GDI measures earnings by all participants of the economy while GDP measures the value of total economic output. Historically,…
Another sign of weakening consumer spending: US travel spending declined by 1.1% year-over-year through mid-August, according to Bank of America. Travel spending per household has also been below total spending since the beginning of this year. US consumers' travel demand has…
BREAKING: Donald Trump is now leading Kamala Harris by 5 percentage points in 2024 election odds, according to Polymarket's prediction markets. Just one month ago, Harris was leading Trump by 10 percentage points on the same platform. The election is 2 months out.
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